Everybody has beliefs
It is wrong, the nineteenth-century British mathematician W. K. Clifford affirmed, “always, everywhere, and for anyone, to believe anything upon insufficient evidence.” I am guessing that Clifford believed what he wrote, but what evidence he had for his belief, he did not say.
David Berlinski — The Devil's Delusion – Atheism and its scientific pretensions
If dogmatic belief is wrong, then does that include the dogmatic belief that dogmatic belief is wrong?
If you didn’t have beliefs, you couldn't function on a day to day basis. Imagine not believing that the floor will hold you up every step you take? You would need to carefully increase the pressure of every step until putting enough pressure down to move forward, like selecting the next rock when free climbing a cliff. If you lived that way, you couldn't even drive to the cliff, or to work, or the grocery store, or wherever.
Does two plus two actually equal four? Isn't the concept of “equality” a socially defined construct? What if I don’t believe in the concept of “addition”?
You say rational belief is based on probabilities? If you flip a coin one thousand times and it comes up heads every time, what is the probability it will come up heads the next time? Fifty/fifty. Will the sun come up tomorrow? Probably. Will you eventually die? If you say “probably”, then you are certainly an unusual case, or you are deluding yourself.
How did the universe begin? The Big Bang you say? So then how did the Big Bang begin? Nothing to say? So, you are accepting this construct of a “Big Bang” without an explanation?
Of course, at this point some will pass me off as a “science denier” and go watch a cat video. But is this any different than calling me a “heretic” and doing the same thing?
To be clear, I believe that much of what science uncovers has pragmatic value, although I think that scientists lose their way when they try to attach meaning to what is essentially just a series of inductive inferences. Meaning is an individual thing, and inductive inferences only work until they don't.
At some level, all beliefs require a leap of faith. You can hide your beliefs in a series of reductions, but in the end, they are still all based on insufficient evidence. So, it's up to you to choose your beliefs.
 The Devil's Delusion – Atheism and its scientific pretensions (links to Amazon)